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English to Chinese: Market outlook 市場展望 General field: Bus/Financial Detailed field: Investment / Securities
Source text - English With Greek and Iranian negotiations well advanced, and signs of stabilisation with the Chinese economy, we believe the sentiment towards the oil market will improve as tightening fundamentals become more apparent. The US oil rig count was showing signs of bottoming at month-end. We have updated our US drilling/ supply model with the latest well productivity data. Our US supply model feeds into our global supply and demand model, which points to the market balancing in the second half of 2015, and needing incremental production growth from the US to balance demand in 2016. As we iterate with our US drilling/supply model, the rig count needs to pick up in the second half of 2015, and exit 2016 roughly 500 rigs higher than June 2015 levels.
As we estimate, the oil price needed to provide sufficient incremental cashflow to support this level of activity, we believe the WTI crude price needs to rise to above US$70/bl. Our price call has been revised down slightly by US$5/bl in the second half of 2015 and all of 2016, and US$10/bl longer term to reflect a stronger US dollar and lower oil service costs. From the third quarter of 2015, we see the WTI oil price progressing to US$65/bl and US$70/bl in the third and fourth quarters, then US$75, US$80, US$80, US$85/bl in 2016, and stabilising at the US$85/bl level longer term. We expect Brent prices to average US$5/bl higher than WTI. We continue to believe the forward (market) prices for WTI and Brent are considerably understating the recovery potential, which is normal at this stage of the cycle.
Translation - Chinese 隨著希臘和伊朗的談判進展順利，以及中國經濟呈現穩定的跡象，天達資產管理認為，原油市場的投資情緒即將改善，因為基本面的供需緊縮變得更加明顯。美國原油鑽井數在月底顯示觸底的跡象，天達資產管理以最新的油井生產力數據更新了美國探鑽／供給模型，然後使用美國供給模型的數據輸入全球供給和需求模型，結果指出，在2015下半年市場將取得供需均衡，而在2016年，則需要從美國增加生產量以應付原油需求。正如我們重新審視美國的探鑽／供給模型，從2015下半年起鑽井數必須逐漸增加，並且在2016年年底之前，要比2015年6月的數量增加約500個。
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