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The North American Journal of Economics and Finance

Volume 40, April 2017, Pages 103–115

The (de-)anchoring of inflation expectations: New evidence from the euro area

Dieter Nautz, Laura Pagenhardt, Till Strohsal


Highlights

• We investigate the anchoring of long-term inflation expectations in the euro area.
• Euro area inflation expectations have been anchored until fall 2011.
• Multiple break tests indicate that expectations have been de-anchored ever since.

Abstract

Well-anchored inflation expectations are a key factor for achieving economic stability. This paper provides new empirical results on the anchoring of long-term inflation expectations in the euro area. In line with earlier evidence, we find that euro area inflation expectations have been anchored until fall 2011. Since then, however, they respond significantly to macroeconomic news. Our results obtained from multiple endogenous break point tests suggest that euro area inflation expectations have remained de-anchored ever since.

Keywords: Anchoring of inflation expectations; Break-even inflation rates; News-regressions; Multiple structural break tests

JEL classification: E31; E52; E58; C22


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Note added at 9 hrs (2017-06-16 18:18:26 GMT)
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De-anchoring is the opposite of anchoring in economics

http://econpapers.repec.org/paper/zbwbubdps/042016.htm

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Note added at 9 hrs (2017-06-16 18:20:53 GMT)
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http://www.centralbanking.com/central-banking/research/24690...