Spanish to English Bus/Financial Economics Mexican national budget

Hi all. Translating a study prepared for the Mexican government proposing different public investment scenarios. I have translated the above term as baseline scenario, but the author prefers base scenario. I'd like to know if there's a difference. I see that baseline scenario is more commonly used, but base scenario also seems to be used to indicate a situation, or outcome, if no changes are made. (Not sure if that's correct, but that's what it looks like to me.) Anyway, here's the original sentence. Would appreciate any insight into which term is better and why.

Se generó un escenario base o de referencia que reproduce el comportamiento pasado y actual de la economía (2018-2021) y lo proyecta hasta el 2030.

Thanks!