likelihood of

French translation: propension

GLOSSARY ENTRY (DERIVED FROM QUESTION BELOW)
English term or phrase:likelihood of
French translation:propension
Entered by: Cassandra Delacote

12:30 May 9, 2019
English to French translations [Non-PRO]
Safety / Policing criminal statistics
English term or phrase: likelihood of
Context:

Crime statistics for xxx jurisdiction, disaggregated by area, seem to confirm that reported crime is indeed high in Area 47.
Area 18, another high-density area with formal settlements, also registered a high crime rate.
This could be attributed to the proximity of Area 18 to yyyi, another informal settlement which borders Area 18.
Further, many houses in Area 18 are not fenced, which provides easier access to potential thieves.
Together, these two areas make up 30% of crimes recorded at (xxx).
These statistics have not yet been contrasted with accurate population data, but this does seem disproportionate.
Of course, this could also reflect variances in the likelihood of populations living in Areas 47 and 18 reporting crime, in comparison with those living in informal settlements.

In reality this question is not strictly about the above term, but about the best way to translate or even really understand the following passage:

"Of course, this could also reflect variances in the likelihood of populations living in Areas 47 and 18 reporting crime, in comparison with those living in informal settlements."

Firstly, areas 47 and 49 ARE informal settlements themselves, which makes me think that their crime statistics should be compared to formal settlements, not informal settlements.

Secondly, even apart from that issue, I just can't seem to find an elegant way of expressing this sentence in French.
"Ce taux de criminalité élevé pourrait refleter la différence de probabilité que les populations vivant dans les zones 47 et 18 signalent les crimes, par rapport à ceux qui vivent dans [d'autres] établissements informels. "

I would be happy to have your suggestions.
Cassandra Delacote
France
Local time: 07:24
propension
Explanation:
je suggère quelque chose comme ceci:
une propension différente à porter plainte (en fonction des populations)


--------------------------------------------------
Note added at 1 hr (2019-05-09 13:34:55 GMT)
--------------------------------------------------

En réponse à l'objection de François Boye, si effectivement probabilité est le terme statistique, en terme de taux de criminalité et de dépôt de plainte on emploie fréquemment le terme propension. Cf les deux liens suivants, dont le 2ème bien que clairement de nature statistique, emploie les deux termes :
http://www.justice.gouv.fr/statistiques-10054/etudes-statist...
http://www.justice.gouv.fr/art_pix/1_stat_Eco_stat_448F.pdf
Selected response from:

Elisabeth Richard
France
Local time: 07:24
Grading comment
Merci à tous de vos suggestions, mais cette réponse m'a été la plus utile! merci beaucoup.
4 KudoZ points were awarded for this answer



Summary of answers provided
5 +1Prédisposition
Samuel Clarisse
4 +1Probabilité, éventualité
Nadine Hertig
4 +1propension
Christian Fournier
4 +1propension
Elisabeth Richard
4les chances
FX Fraipont (X)


Discussion entries: 4





  

Answers


6 mins   confidence: Answerer confidence 4/5Answerer confidence 4/5 peer agreement (net): +1
Probabilité, éventualité


Explanation:
Probabilité, éventualité

Nadine Hertig
Local time: 06:24
Native speaker of: Native in FrenchFrench

Peer comments on this answer (and responses from the answerer)
agree  Francois Boye: Probabilité est le terme technique de la statistique
41 mins

agree  Bridget Jean
1 hr

agree  GILOU
1 hr

disagree  Christian Fournier: l'usage de "likehood" et non de "probability" laisse à penser que l'auteur ne s'exprime pas en termes de statistique
1 hr

disagree  Samuel Clarisse: Idem ce ne sont pas des statistiques...
2 hrs
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8 mins   confidence: Answerer confidence 4/5Answerer confidence 4/5 peer agreement (net): +1
propension


Explanation:
variations dans la propension des populations ... à signaler les crimes et délits...

Christian Fournier
France
Local time: 07:24
Native speaker of: Native in FrenchFrench

Peer comments on this answer (and responses from the answerer)
disagree  Francois Boye: ce n'est le terme technique de ls statistique
40 mins

agree  Elisabeth Richard
49 mins
  -> Merci Elisabeth - un prêté pour un rendu

agree  mchd
1 hr
  -> Merci mchd
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33 mins   confidence: Answerer confidence 4/5Answerer confidence 4/5
les chances


Explanation:
likelihood of populations reporting crime

FX Fraipont (X)
Belgium
Local time: 07:24
Native speaker of: Native in FrenchFrench
PRO pts in category: 64
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14 mins   confidence: Answerer confidence 4/5Answerer confidence 4/5 peer agreement (net): +1
propension


Explanation:
je suggère quelque chose comme ceci:
une propension différente à porter plainte (en fonction des populations)


--------------------------------------------------
Note added at 1 hr (2019-05-09 13:34:55 GMT)
--------------------------------------------------

En réponse à l'objection de François Boye, si effectivement probabilité est le terme statistique, en terme de taux de criminalité et de dépôt de plainte on emploie fréquemment le terme propension. Cf les deux liens suivants, dont le 2ème bien que clairement de nature statistique, emploie les deux termes :
http://www.justice.gouv.fr/statistiques-10054/etudes-statist...
http://www.justice.gouv.fr/art_pix/1_stat_Eco_stat_448F.pdf

Example sentence(s):
  • Cet écart peut aussi refléter une différence de propension à porter plainte
Elisabeth Richard
France
Local time: 07:24
Native speaker of: Native in FrenchFrench
Grading comment
Merci à tous de vos suggestions, mais cette réponse m'a été la plus utile! merci beaucoup.

Peer comments on this answer (and responses from the answerer)
agree  Christian Fournier: J'aurais mauvaise grâce à ne pas être d'accord
16 mins
  -> aha en effet ! :)

disagree  Francois Boye: ce n'est pas le terme technique de la statistique
35 mins
  -> Malgré l'emploi de 'variance', dans ce contexte si, c'est le terme qui est fréquemment utilisé, dans la recherche comme dans les textes officiels.

agree  mchd
1 hr
  -> merci ! :)
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2 hrs   confidence: Answerer confidence 5/5 peer agreement (net): +1
Prédisposition


Explanation:
Pour ma part, j'adore ce mot et je pense qu'il s'imbriquerait parfaitement dans ce texte.

Samuel Clarisse
France
Local time: 07:24
Native speaker of: Native in FrenchFrench
PRO pts in category: 8

Peer comments on this answer (and responses from the answerer)
agree  ormiston: et moi j'aime cette tournure moins lourde
41 mins
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